Beauceron Security's 2022 Cybersecurity Predictions
This year we sat down with Beauceron Security CEO, David Shipley, and asked him what his 2022 cybersecurity predictions are. You can listen to David’s full predictions below or keep reading to see a condensed version of what we believe the 2022 cyber landscape may have in store.
Offensive Action Against Ransomware Gangs
In 2021, countries such as Australia, Great Britain, the United States and as of December, Canada, have begun taking offensive action against ransomware gangs. In these countries we are starting to see steep consequences for individuals accused of being involved in ransomware gangs and ransomware attacks. The switch from defensive to offensive tactics to combat ransomware criminals demonstrates a global commitment to take action against these groups and hold members accountable. In 2022, we predict that more countries will adopt offensive measures to defend against ransomware attacks.
As cybercriminals continue to adapt their attacks and advance their methods, we are more in need than ever before for a Digital Geneva Convention. Without it, we will continue to see attacks on our valuable sectors such as hospitals, manufacturing, government, etc. A digital Geneva Convention would protect organizations as these attacks would be recognized as serious international acts worthy of an international response and punishment. We predict that as ransomware attacks become more serious, international legislation will come to pass to regulate these crimes.
Ransomware Frenzy Will Calm Down
For the first 6 months of 2022 in jurisdictions that are already or beginning to take defensive action against ransomware gangs, ransomware attacks will decrease. However, it’s not all good news, as David explains:
“The dumb ransomware gangs and the dumb affiliates are all going to get cleared out. Now, cybersecurity and the arms race between IT hackers is Darwinian, and so we’re going to see survival of the fittest emerge. And so, in the second half of the year, we’ll see the smarter, more entrenched groups that are more vicious in their attacks that know they don’t have years to run their operation are going to go big, fast. We’re going to see more emphasis on attacks that will hit multiple businesses all at once, take out entire healthcare sectors, take down very large enterprises will continue and they’re going to be smarter about it. And that’s a natural sort of reaction that we’re going to see happen. So, the positive trends that we’re seeing in ransomware right now will buy us some time, but it doesn’t mean the ransomware party, the cybercriminal extortion party, is over. Not by a long shot.”
New Form of Extortion and the Evolution of Malware
David predicts that in 2022, we’ll see a new form of extortion emerge as a result of cybercriminals adapting to the new rules surrounding ransomware. As jurisdictions and countries crack down on one form of extortion, we’ll see new forms invented that are harder to detect and more advanced.
This year we started to see the evolution of malware as cybercriminals adapted and found more ways to extort their targets. As a result, we saw a targeted series of attacks reported in the media and elsewhere about the biomanufacturing industry, most likely because it’s this industry that produces vaccines. For example, David provided the example of Tardigrade malware:
“Now Tardigrade is a microorganism that can survive the harshest environments even in space, and this malware was nicknamed tardigrade because it survived the harshest IT environments, even cut off from traditional methods of control with the operators of the malware. And this is the start of an increasing sophistication of malware.”
2 Groups of People
In 2022 we will see 2 groups of people or organizations emerge: those who take cybersecurity seriously and those that don’t. David explains the different trajectories each group will have in 2022:
People, organizations and businesses that are starting to build cybersecurity into their operational practices, [where] it’s not seen as a project, a one off, an IT thing, an expense or an annoyance, it’s seen as this is a thing required to do business - we’ll see this group thrive in 2022. It’s not to say that they will be immune to attacks, and cybersecurity, like the vaccines, it’s not about necessarily getting infected, it’s about the fact that the infection will be less severe and the ability to recover will be better.
And there will be those who don’t take it seriously. And they will suffer serious consequences both from criminal actions as well as customer faith and trust, as well as regulatory actions from the government of Canada. We’ll hopefully see progress on legislation that was proposed in previous sessions in parliament around the strengthening of fines and consequences for massive loss of personal information, for example.
From Security Awareness to Careness
Most organizations are aware of cybersecurity and understand its importance. That’s why, in 2022, we predict that there will be a shift away from pushing the importance of cybersecurity awareness, to pushing for people to care more about cybersecurity. We will begin to see a shift away from security training and an emphasis on security education – teaching folks why it’s important and why they need to care about cybersecurity in order to better protect themselves and their organization from cyber threats. Training is still important, as it gives folks a basic understanding of what to look for to identify a potential cyber threat, but the shift towards education will motivate people to act in a way that’s cybersafe, which will lead to caring.
David elaborates on this shift: “When we take the time to educate people to question what words mean, and to question things in general, we’re working on some of the foundational elements around assertiveness and confidence that we need to address [in order to foster a positive cybersecurity culture] […] It’s more about when the attitude and decisions to act in a secure way on a regular basis despite being human, being tired, being stressed, being frustrated, being busy, that security is a way of operating is going to be important for organizations to cultivate, mature and entrench their organizations.”
The Human Side of Cybersecurity
In 2022 we’ll see more organizations and clusters of people focusing on the human side of cybersecurity. In Canada, there is a group of folks emerging out of Montreal that are focusing on this right now. There are other groups like this around the world that have been doing it for much longer, for example, in Australia there is a group that has been doing this work for the last 5 to 10 years, focusing on how we measure cybersecurity through qualitative surveys. In 2022 and beyond, we’ll continue to build on this work to identify leading risk within an organization from a human focused perspective.
Change in Perspective
Our final prediction and hope for 2022 is that we will see a massive investment in upgrading the fundamental core technology behind hospitals, many of which can’t be made secure because they use legacy systems. It’s our hope to see an investment in upgrading these systems and introducing new security technologies to better protect the healthcare sector.
David explains this need by describing our reliance on technology in the healthcare sector:
“If there is anything we take from our lessons in 2021 into 2022, it’s that certain things we will not tolerate as a society. But that means and necessitates that if we don’t want the same outcomes, we cannot treat healthcare, in Canada in particular, we cannot treat IT as a cost and just look at how we minimize that, how we maximize the spending on doctors, nurses and healthcare professionals. We have to look at the fact that IT enables us to deliver 10 times the patient care that we can without it. Because that’s the capacity we drop, we drop by 90% when you take away hospital information systems – plus, if you take away digital technologies behind X-rays, MRIs and other things – people can’t get the surgeries they need, the care they need or the diagnosis they need to get the treatment they require. So we need in Canada a massive uplift in security.”
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